iPhone 3G Sell Twice as Fast

Posts marked by ‘Market Commentary’ tag

iPhone 3G Sell Twice as Fast

July 24th, 2008. Posted by AppleOption

Not only is the iPhone 3G twice as fast and twice as thin, AT&T has revealed that despite short supply of iPhones, the new iPhone 3G is sales are twice that of the first phone!

“The Apple iPhone 3G is a dramatic example of this transformation. In the days following our exclusive U.S. launch of this new device, powered by the nation’s fastest 3G wireless network, customer response has been everything we had anticipated and more. This strengthens our wireless business, and it reinforces our positive view of the opportunities ahead for AT&T and the industry.” Stepheson stated.

12 days have passed since the iPhone 3G began selling. The phones have been in limited supply do to amazing damand. Apple announced that on August 22nd, the iPhone 3G will be launching in 20 additional contries.

What? Microsoft to Compete?

July 24th, 2008. Posted by AppleOption

Steve Ballmer the CEO of Microsoft sent a memo to all employees detailing an update in the companies strategy. Ballmer mentions Apple’s recent success and that the company will attempt to compete dirrectly with Apple.

WHAT? Is he really implying that the company hasn’t been trying to compete with Apple the last 5-10 years? It may seem funny to but take a look at the Zune, a complete rip off of the iPod. Or take a look at Vista, a windows attempt to steal features from Mac OS X. And now, Microsoft is announcing they plan to rip-off the iPhone by producing their own mobile phone with an “end-to-end experience.”

Microsoft might have the current corporate market cornered… with Windows and Office. But the thing they are forgetting is the current generation in school: be it elementary, high school, college or grad school. These students will become the new wave of employees that know and love Apple. It won’t take more than 5-10 years for Mac OS to become a mainstay in the corporate center as these grads bring new ideas to the workforce.

Microsoft, may not fell like they are behind… but they are quickly about to realize that they lost the game before they began playing!

Below are a few specific comments by Ballmer:

Apple: In the competition between PCs and Macs, we outsell Apple 30-to-1. But there is no doubt that Apple is thriving. Why? Because they are good at providing an experience that is narrow but complete, while our commitment to choice often comes with some compromises to the end-to-end experience. Today, we’re changing the way we work with hardware vendors to ensure that we can provide complete experiences with absolutely no compromises. We’ll do the same with phones—providing choice as we work to create great end-to-end experiences.

Job’s Health - AGAIN ?

July 21st, 2008. Posted by AppleOption

The New York Post releases the following article which states:

” Industry and investor concerns about the health of Apple Inc’s (AAPL) Chief Executive Steve Jobs have not dimmed more than a month after he appeared dramatically thinner at the firm’s annual developers’ conference.

Hedge fund investors of Apple, which is scheduled to report results on Monday, are very worried, a Wall Street source who has spoken with some of the company’s stakeholders told The Post.”

This is complete garbage!

I can’t believe the New York Post can recycle worthless old news! If a “Wall Street Source” says something and “hedge fund” investors are “very worried.” Then the article has MANIPULATION all over it! Read, someone on Wall Street wants to buy a whole lot of Apple for less than $165 and is trying to scare people into selling before likely great earnings.

Read AppleOption’s opinion “Steve Jobs - Whipple Health

Week 29 - Portfolio Review

July 20th, 2008. Posted by AppleOption

Week 29 of 2008 trading marked the beginning of earnings season. Google, Microsoft and a whole lot of banks announced this week and caused sector rotation within the market. Examine the following year-to-date performance.

Apple    NASDAQ    S&P 500    Dow Jones
-13.26%    -12.51%    -13.15%    -12.31%


Now, compare that performance to the AppleOption Portfolios!

AppleOption Short-Term Portfolio (STP)
      Started the January 2008 with $10,000
      Current portfolio value $12,001.89 (after commission/fees)
      Year-to-Date Gain 20.0%

AppleOption Long-Term Portfolio (LTP)
      Started the January 2008 with $25,000
      Current portfolio value $23,158.12 (after commission/fees)
      Year-to-Date Loss -7.4%

AppleOption Auto-Trade Portfolio (ATP)
      Minimum Allocation: $1,500 per trade or max of 12.5% of account value
      Minimum Account Value: $12,000 provides 8 allocations
      Average Percentage Gain per Trade: 32.0%
      Performance since Inception: 77.7% Winning Trades
      Number of Open Trades: 4


** Members can view all current portfolio holdings by viewing the Members-Only Page then selecting the Account View: Current Portfolio.

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Weekly Review of Portfolio Trades
     

AppleOption Short-Term Portfolio

The AppleOption STP had a very active week. All members received email trade alerts for all of the following trades:
7/15 rolled $180 put down to $170 during the sell off for $7 credit
7/16 bought back 5 contracts of the July $185 call for $0.12
7/16 bought back 2 contracts of the July $145 call for $0.05
7/16 sold 1 contract of the July $175 call for $1.25
7/17 bought back 3 contracts of the July $180 call $0.25
7/17 bought back 1 contract of the July $160 Put $0.05
7/17 rolled the July $170 put up to $175 put for $1.60
7/17 bought 2 contracts of the July $175 Call for $0.75
7/17 bought back 2 contracts of the July $160 Put for $0.05
7/18 sold for the July $175 put for $6.00
7/18 sold for the July $170 put for $1.75
7/18 bought 1 August Butterfly 185/200/210 for $1.75
7/18 bought 2 contract of the July $165 Put $0.05

AppleOption Long-Term Portfolio

The AppleOption LTP was less active than the STP but during option expiration week this is when the action happens in this portfolio. We placed the following trades:
7/15 sold 1 contract of the July $160 Put $1.20
7/16 bought back 2 contracts of the July $185 call for $0.12
7/17 bought back 1 contract of the July $160 Put
7/18 sold 1 contract of the July $165 Put $0.70

AppleOption Auto Trade Portfolio

Simply an amazing week! Monday’s huge rally lead to an 83.4% profitable trade. This portfolio opened two additional positions (Aug $180’s Wednesday and Aug $170’s Friday) during the massive sell off this week. We are looking to capitalize on them heading into Apple earnings report Monday after the bell.

There is a lot of excitement about our newest portfolio. The AppleOption Auto Trade Portfolio (ATP) is offered through ThinkorSwim. Investors interested in following the AppleOption Auto Trade Portfolio will need to open a ThinkorSwim brokerage account as well as need an active AppleOption Membership. After both of these are set-up, then investors will be ready to activate the auto-trading service through ThinkorSwim. Each trader determines his/her individual risk tolerance by selecting a specific allocation type. For more information please refer to the AppleOption Auto-Trade Portfolio (ATP) page.

 
Technical Apple Review
     
Apple (AAPL) 3-Month Chart    Apple (AAPL) 5-Day Chart

Key Reference Points:
5-EMA: $169.99
20-EMA: $173.21
50-MA: $179.58
200-MA: $164.77
1st Resistance: $170.90 - double
2nd Resistance: $179.20 - triple
1st Support: $161.80 - double
2nd Support: $148.30 - double

Well Google’s “miss” pulled Apple down to $165.15 which is a GIFT! Has anyone noticed how packed the Apple and AT&T stores are with people buying the iPhone 3G? They sold 1 million phones in the first weekend. While the stock is sitting at the 200-MA, traders have another fantastic entry point. Just realize that Apple will announce earnings on Monday this week and the “proof is in the pudding,” Apple fundamentally is solid and they have fantastic sales and growing market share. We should see a nice rally this coming week.

     
Up-Coming Earning Reports:

Apple will announce Quarter 3 earnings on Monday July 21.

View which other companies releasing earnings next week

Monday, July 21st
    - Bank of America - BAC
    - Downey Fincl - DSL
    - Merck - MRK
    => Apple - AAPL
    - Boston Scientific - BSX
    - Texas Instruments - TXN
Tuesday, July 22nd
    - Caterpillar - CAT
    - Halliburton - HAL
    - OptionsXpress - OXPS
    - UPS - UPS
    - Wachovia - WB
    - Western Union - WU
    - XTO Energy - XTO
    - Intuitive Surgical - ISRG
    - VMware - VMW
    - Washington Mutual - WM
    - Yahoo! - YHOO
Wednesday, July 23rd
    - Allegheny Tech - ATI
    - Boeing - BA
    - ConocoPhillips - COP
    - EMC Corp - EMC
    - GlaxoSmithKline - GSK
    - PepsiCo - PEP
    - Whirlpool - WHR
    - Amazon.com - AMZN
    - Baidu.com - BIDU
    - Teradyne - TER
Thursday, July 24th
    - Ford Motor - F
    - Goodrich - GR
    - RadioShack - RSH
    - TASER - TASR
Friday, July 25th
    - Black & Decker - BDK
    - Netflix - NFLX

     
Analysis Reports:

American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu: reiterated his Buy rating and $220 price target on AAPL

     
Apple News:

Apple press release: “The App Store is a grand slam, with a staggering 10 million applications downloaded in just three days,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “Developers have created some extraordinary applications, and the App Store can wirelessly deliver them to every iPhone and iPod touch user instantly.”

AppleInsider reports: Only 10-days after iPhone 3G sales began, virtually all Apple retail stores are sold out in 38 states!

Gartner Report estimates that Apple’s Mac computer sales growth was 38.1% for Q2 2008 compared to last year’s Q2.

Bloomberg.com reviews AAPL stock and earnings estimates heading into the big day.